Euros invade Kentucky in hope of Cup pursess
Post on: 2011-11-02 By: admin
The internationals are marshaling their forces for Breeders' Cup XXVIII at Churchill Downs. The raiding party looks formidable in the turf races, especially since Europeans have already found North America a happy hunting ground this season. A few intrepid shippers, however, are also venturing onto the dirt. In this first installment, we'll analyze each of the invaders for Breeders' Cup Friday, identifying strengths and weakness, and render a verdict.Juvenile SprintShumoos: Brian Meehan-trained filly has flashed real ability on occasion, but is equally capable of throwing in shockingly bad efforts. She looked like a potential star against males first time out, simply blowing away the subsequent Group 2 winner Frederick Engels (since sold to Hong Kong). After missing by a whisker as the 6-5 favorite in the Group 2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, she was once again beaten as the favorite when third in the Group 2 Cherry Hinton. That was a sneakily-good effort, for she struck the front, but just couldn't sustain her momentum up the stiff hill at Newmarket. Yet she has been drubbed in two of her past three, and enters this test with her reputation tarnished. In between her recent debacles on turf, however, she showed admirable resolve to get up late in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes at Kempton, her only attempt on Polytrack. A switch to dirt could bring out the best in her. Bred top and bottom for the main track, she is by Distorted Humor out of a Storm Cat mare, and her second dam is multiple Grade 1-winning juvenile Strategic Maneuver. Shumoos has sometimes been her own worst enemy when rank early, so the ferocious pace here ought to help her settle. In awfully tough against the top-class Secret Circle, but talented enough to hit the board if the good Shumoos shows up.
Elusive Kate: John Gosden pupil rates as a dangerous contender, brandishing a four-race winning streak, stellar form, and tactical speed. Since beating a useful rival in a Polytrack maiden at Kempton, she has methodically climbed the stakes ladder in France, showing a measure of adaptability along the way. She overcame traffic trouble when rallying from last in the Prix Six Perfections, but employed front-running tactics to take the Group 3 Prix du Calvados at Deauville and the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp, both with authority. The form is rock solid: the Boussac runner-up had previously defeated males in a Group 3, and had also chased Aidan O'Brien's exceptional filly Maybe, while the Boussac third was a Group 3 winner herself. The only potential negative is that Elusive Kate drifted out badly to her left down the stretch at Longchamp last time. She was still much the best in the Boussac, and might have simply gotten a bit lost in front. Still, her waywardness at least raises the question of how she'll navigate the two turns at Churchill. By Elusive Quality and out of a half-sister to 2003 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Pleasantly Perfect, the well-bred filly will be sold at Fasig-Tipton on Sunday, and a catalog update is in the offing. Dear Lavinia: Honest and genuine filly has run well against Elusive Kate and the smart colt French Fifteen, who boosted her form still further with a victory in Sunday's Group 1 Criterium International. Last time out, she defeated males in wire-to-wire fashion in the Grand Criterium de Bordeaux. Following that fluent score, trainer Jean-Claude Rouget said that the "very good filly" would get a well-deserved rest. She's in this line-up because celebrity chef Bobby Flay purchased her privately and repatriated her. If she still has something in reserve for this hasty addition to her schedule, she's entitled to make her presence felt at a wildly generous 30-1 on the morning line.Up: O'Brien trainee looks ambitiously placed in her stakes debut. A May 15 foal, she tired badly in her first start at the Curragh, just six days after her actual birthday. Resurfacing four months later, she swept to a convincing win over the Polytrack at Dundalk. The half-sister to multiple Group 1-winning juvenile Dutch Art has a future, but could find this too big a test at this stage of her career. Juvenile FilliesHomecoming Queen: Three-quarter sister to European Horse of the Year Dylan Thomas would have made more sense in her divisional turf race. Since Dylan Thomas was a spectacular flop in his dirt audition in the 2006 Jockey Club Gold Cup, it's difficult to argue that his close relation will relish the surface. To her credit, though, the O'Brien pupil has improved dramatically over the course of her busy season, with added distance and a change to front-running tactics. She's developed into a superbly game customer too. When the highly-regarded Coral Wave looked ready to inhale her in the Group 3 C.L. Weld Park Stakes, she found plenty under pressure, fought back, headed her, and forced her rival to pull out even more. Homecoming Queen moved forward off that narrow loss to earn her first stakes victory in style. She'll be making her 11th start -- on the heels of three big efforts in rapid succession -- and it would be understandable if it all finally catches up with her. Questing: Gosden trainee has yet to run a bad race on turf, and as a daughter of Hard Spun from a Seeking the Gold mare, the Darley-bred has a pedigree tailor-made for the dirt. She made a big impression in her debut at Newbury, powering right away from the field to win with ears pricked. Stepped up into Group 3 company, she has shown speed to lead early, but has been caught late each time with little excuse. The form doesn't look particularly strong at this point either. Unless the switch to dirt conjures up massive improvement, she's looks up against it among these. Her rail draw is another negative, especially in light of her breaking a tad awkwardly in her last two. Gosden runners always demand respect, but since she'll remain stateside afterward, this looks more like an opportunistic swing at the fences before switching barns. Filly & Mare TurfAnnounce: Juddmonte Farms homebred is a reliably high-class type who relishes a fast surface. Indeed, she has finished in the top two in all but two of her starts, both of those coming on unsuitably soft ground. Trained by the masterful Andre Fabre, she has defeated a couple of solid rivals in the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet and the Group 3 Prix Allez France, but her runner-up efforts are arguably even better. She has finished second this season to champion Sarafina (the morning-line favorite against males in the Turf) and to the first-rate gelding Cirrus des Aigles (who just beat Classic hope So You Think in course-record time at Ascot). Last time out, she missed on the head-bob to the unbeaten Nahrain while toting 128 pounds. Although she must again concede weight to the younger Nahrain here, she drops four pounds to 124. Another factor that could help her gain revenge is the extra distance in this 1 3/8-mile test, for she's proven over 1 1/2 miles. Might be a little overlooked among a couple of higher-profile opponents, but this stalker has a strong turn of foot and the credentials to pull a mild upset. Nahrain: Undefeated filly has made giant strides for rookie trainer Roger Varian, progressing from an unraced maiden to Group 1 winner in the span of only four starts. Not only has the beautifully-bred three-year-old answered every class test so far, but she has done so with panache. She enters off a career high in the Group 1 Prix de l'Opera, capitalizing on a ground-saving trip to fend off the rallying Announce by a nose. While she's certainly bred to handle the added furlong here, it's worth noting that Announce was getting to her in the final strides of the 1 1/4-mile Opera. On the other hand, the Opera was Nahrain's first attempt at that distance, and her first start in three months, so she's entitled to improve further. Varian, who learned his craft under the late Michael Jarvis, is not the type to tilt at windmills. Major threat on any type of going, but it's a tough spot to try to keep a perfect record intact. Misty for Me: Despite compiling a superb resume, O'Brien trainee is not necessarily a clear-cut proposition here. Last year's French and Irish champion two-year-old filly has done her best work over wide, expansive courses like the Curragh and Longchamp, not a tight circuit like Churchill. Indeed, she's a true horse-for-the-course at the Curragh, where she defeated Together in the Group 1 Irish One Thousand Guineas and handed Midday (Turf) a six-length trouncing in the Group 1 Pretty Polly. The margin can't be taken at face value, however: Misty for Me dictated the pace on yielding-to-soft ground that Midday didn't enjoy, while benefiting from a 12-pound weight concession. Moreover, Misty for Me has looked vulnerable going left-handed, finishing fifth in the Group 1 Oaks at Epsom, and more significantly, a well-beaten third as the favorite in the Group 1 Matron at Leopardstown. That September 3 outing is her only race in the last four months (she was scratched from the October 2 Opera) -- probably not the ideal preparation for a filly who tends to improve with a recent race under her belt. Logical contender with tactical speed and class, but she prompts lingering questions about course and race-fitness.
Profiles for Breeders' Cup Saturday to follow in Part II.
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